Monday, March 10, 2008

Gophers - Mavs Preview: A Natural Rivalry?

This weekend's WCHA playoffs will feature an intriguing matchup between the fourth-seeded Minnesota State Mavericks and seventh seeded Gophers at the Alltel Center in Mankato.

Word out of Mankato is that the city is preparing for the most meaningful home series in nearly a decade. Both teams stumbled into this weekend's series having split with a WCHA bottom-dweller. Both teams won their Friday night matchups last weekend - The Mavs over Michigan Tech and the Gophers over UMD - only to drop their second game. Although neither squad ultimately suffered a lower seed as a result of their Game 2 defeats, their losses indicate that whomever comes out of the short end of this weekend's tilt could teeter on the brink of March Madness' "other" bubble.

The Mavericks enter the weekend 11th in the Pairwise, while the Gophers sit in 12th. As of this week, eight WCHA schools are in position to claim an NCAA berth if the tournament teams were named today.

The five best-of-three series happening in the WCHA this weekend might shake things up for college hockey's most elite conference, but the conference should stand to improve on the three schools it sent to the tournament a year ago.

The Series

The Gophers swept the only series of the year between these two schools, a home-and-home affair in November. Since that time, the two programs' 2007-08 seasons have moved in opposite directions.

Minnesota took a nose dive after their sweep of the Mavericks in November. The debacle featured, among other lowlights, the departure of a premier scoring threat in Kyle Okposo and a 4-3 loss to mighty RIT at Mariucci Arena in December in the opening round of the Dodge Holiday Classic. The Gophers went more than a month - from the Jan. 11-12 series with St. Cloud to the Feb. 22-23 series with Wisconsin - without scoring more than three goals in a weekend.

The ace in the hole for the Gophers comes in the form of freshman netminder Alex Kangas, who - while unspectacular - has given Don Lucia's squad consistency between the pipes while the team has worked to get their scoring touch back. Minnesota looks to have rekindled their scoring flame after netting at least four goals in four of their last six regular season contests.

The Mavs have been buoyed in the second half of the WCHA schedule by a seven-game winning streak that lasted from late January an into February that included sweeps over St. Cloud, Denver, Alaska-Anchorage and a win at the Kohl Center against Wisconsin. Mankato has benefitted from a balanced lineup and from consistent play highlighted by leading scorers Trevor Bruess and Mick Berge.

After coach Troy Jutting began the season with a tag-team approach between the pipes that included juniors Dan Tormey and Mike Zacharias, the sometimes-stubborn Jutting has come to his senses - momentarily - and has gone primarily with the more reliable Zacharias during the second half of the WCHA slate.

And the Oscar goes to....

Although the Gophers lead the all-time series 26-2-4 (Yes, really), this is going to be a dogfight. The Gophers will certainly favor a more high-scoring affair. Things will be looking good for the rodents if they are able to score more than twice. The Mavs hope to control the pace of play, ride Zacharias, and get goals from their big guns.

The X-Factor: Kangas. If the freshman keeps his wits about him and dis-allows any Frazee-esque soft goals, the Gophers will be happy with the result.

Prediction: Mavs in three.

Other WCHA weekend prognostications:

CC sweeps Anchorage
UND sweeps Tech
UMD over Denver in three
Wisconsin over St. Cloud in three

(This might mean only 5 or 6 WCHA squads in the NCAA tourney)